Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4974…aa3d crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$348 (-1%) realized −$349 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%45W / 5L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$70
other 19% −$122
economics 11% +$25
world 11% +$20
finance 7% +$8
politics 4% −$349
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 11% -7.9%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -10.8%
10% -18.1% 2% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 2% -27.2%
20% -33.3% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$562) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$139 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$957
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses45 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage263d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $835 $835 +$1 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $948 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $517 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 28 $422 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 24 $422 +$4 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 17 $919 +$8 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $930 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $923 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 01 $358 +$4 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $493 +$68 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $847 +$3 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $1,072 +$10 +1%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $545 +$61 +11%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 03 $229 +$2 +1%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 25 $314 −$84 -27%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 25 $313 +$3 +1%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 20 $312 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 07 $846 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 28 $845 +$2 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 26 $509 −$352 -69%
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 19 $509 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 11 $507 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $506 +$1 +0%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 03 $481 −$255 -53%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $403 +$66 +16%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026? Dec 11 $11 +$1 +9%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $385 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 20 $377 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 07 $376 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 5? Nov 04 $375 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $375 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 31 $336 +$29 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on October 18? Oct 17 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 18? Oct 17 $458 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on October 16? Oct 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 16? Oct 16 $743 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $270 on October 15? Oct 16 $846 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 14? Oct 15 $845 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $280 on October 13? Oct 14 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Oct 13 $278 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $130,000 on October 12? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on October Oct 12 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Oct 12 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10? Oct 11 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on October 9? Oct 09 $559 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 8? Oct 09 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $800 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by October 31? Oct 05 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118,000 on October 4? Oct 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $835 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $718 25h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $119 3d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $121 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $119 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $948 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $298 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $195 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $426 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $422 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $426 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $422 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 37d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $78 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $56 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $84 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 38d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 38d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $517 47d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $505 47d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $919 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $931 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $930 60d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $930 60d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $923 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.95 · official $956.95 (match) · 156 history records