trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 03 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 28 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 19 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 14 | $87 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 07 | $87 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 17 | $88 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 14 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 11 | $88 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 06 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 28 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Mar 20 | $88 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 16 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 13 | $176 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin | Mar 03 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 15 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.4% |