trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 50% | 0% | -11.6% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 33% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 33% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 27 | -1.9% | -11.3% | 33% | 4% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.3% | 4% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -27.5% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $88 | −$5 | -6% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $65 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr | Jun 05 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025? | May 27 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | May 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 26 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | May 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | May 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | May 22 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? | May 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 15 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $26 | $0 | -0% |