Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x496f…fa5d
weather · 291 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$61 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$132 · open +$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$373
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses190 / 131
Open positions32
Markets (closed)321 / 291
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day498.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$402
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $23 $32 +$8 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $18 $29 +$12 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 83¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? No 83¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 15? Jun 13 $13 −$17 -131%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on May 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 13? Jun 13 $4 −$6 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 18? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 31? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? Jun 13 $11 +$28 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28? Jun 13 $1 +$23 +3875%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 26? Jun 13 $14 −$25 -177%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 17? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 16? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +372%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 18? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 13 $6 −$9 -140%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma Jun 13 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 16? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 19? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$6 -1124%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$8 -530%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? Jun 13 $4 −$5 -123%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 19? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 5? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 18? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 5? Jun 13 $22 −$18 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 18? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on May 19? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 1? Jun 13 $4 −$7 -209%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 19? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 19? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 10? Jun 13 $21 −$19 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 26? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 46°C on May 18? Jun 13 $19 −$16 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 19? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C on May 18? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 18? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 1? Jun 13 $1 −$5 -911%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 29? Jun 13 $11 −$15 -142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 22¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 +7.9% -2.3% 59% 41% -11.6%
≤30d 321 +7.9% -2.3% 59% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 321 +7.9% -2.3% 59% 41% -11.6%
all 321 +7.9% -2.3% 59% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover498.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 41% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 27% -20.0%
15% -20.2% 18% -27.8%
20% -28.0% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.74 · official $373.29 (match) · 3500 history records