Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

49 0x496d…7fbb other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$194 (+15%) realized +$230 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%9W / 4L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$323

7 days+$409

14 days+$415

30 days+$309

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+30.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+91.7%	+73.4%	100%	88%	+46.7%
≤30d	13	+44.2%	+30.5%	69%	62%	+23.3%
≤90d	13	+44.2%	+30.5%	69%	62%	+23.3%
all	13	+44.2%	+30.5%	69%	62%	+23.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.5%	62%	+23.3%
10%	+18.0%	62%	+11.5%
15%	+6.6%	62%	+0.7%
20%	-3.9%	54%	-9.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +72% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$27 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$380

Realized+$230

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses9 / 4

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions3

Markets (closed)13 / 21

History coverage19d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	58¢	$411	$376	−$35 (-9%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	14¢	16¢	$2	$3	+$0 (+14%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$2	$2	−$1 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$279	+$140	+50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$46	+$45	+97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$101	+$87	+86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$69	+$51	+73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$11	+$16	+146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$80	+$1	+1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$52	+$28	+54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$18	+$42	+226%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 08	$146	−$92	-63%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 07	$1	−$1	-87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$27	−$10	-36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$10	−$3	-34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$144	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$272	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$279	16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$46	27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$101	27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	40¢	$11	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	57¢	$69	2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	94¢	$81	2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	93¢	$80	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$80	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY	4¢	$4	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Spain wi	BUY	25¢	$5	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$52	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	30¢	$18	3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	35¢	$8	5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN	BUY	9¢	$10	6d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (	BUY	2¢	$10	6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	61¢	$10	8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$53	15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$4	15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$16	15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$35	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$91	16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	SELL Yes	18¢	$17	18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$27	18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.24 · official $380.24 (match) · 54 history records