Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x496d…a2f2 weather 766 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$354 (+12%) realized +$348 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%138W / 527L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$185
14 days+$274
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$440
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +62.3% +46.8% 8% 8% +64.7%
≤30d 362 -3.7% -12.9% 7% 6% -25.2%
≤90d 665 -1.0% -10.5% 21% 20% -1.0%
all 665 -1.0% -10.5% 21% 20% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 20% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 18% -10.4%
15% -26.8% 15% -19.1%
20% -34.0% 13% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses138 / 527
Open positions31
Markets (closed)665 / 766
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 89¢ $1 $18 +$17 (+1681%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 81¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+1520%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 5¢ 23¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+353%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+271%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$33 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$91 +3033%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$148 +2185%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$19 +1900%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$19 +1900%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.23 · official $45.23 (match) · 2400 history records