Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x496d…55f0 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$180 (+4%) realized +$181 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$4
politics 22% −$5
sports 10% +$187
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +8.3% -2.0% 46% 29% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 29% -5.2%
10% -11.4% 29% -14.3%
15% -20.0% 29% -22.5%
20% -27.8% 29% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage538d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $700 $700 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $337 $337 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 12 $12 +$10 +85%
Pacers vs. Jazz Nov 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 11 $11 +$9 +82%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 10 $8 +$11 +138%
Celtics vs. 76ers Oct 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Oct 31 $8 +$7 +89%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Oct 06 $37 +$37 +100%
Yankees vs. Twins Sep 22 $25 +$16 +64%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $12 +$12 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $5 +$6 +127%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 04 $103 +$101 +98%
Will Chelsea lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jan 03 $101 +$110 +109%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $337 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $700 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $511 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $526 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $512 4h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $527 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 15h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 15h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 22h
Pacers vs. Jazz BUY Pacers 56¢ $13 218d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $12 218d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 55¢ $11 219d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $8 222d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 53¢ $12 229d
Grizzlies vs. Suns BUY Grizzlies 53¢ $8 231d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY DET 50¢ $37 269d
Yankees vs. Twins BUY Yankees 61¢ $25 273d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $12 275d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $5 276d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 359d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 394d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 398d
Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 400d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.48 · official $1,036.48 (match) · 72 history records