Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4967…63a6 crypto 453 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%223W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 43% -14.1%
≤30d 453 -3.8% -12.9% 49% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 453 -3.8% -12.9% 49% 42% -11.9%
all 453 -3.8% -12.9% 49% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 42% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 34% -28.0%
20% -35.8% 27% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses223 / 230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)453 / 453
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 453 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1020 history records