Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4962…8d15 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$456 (+0%) realized +$457 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%40W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$50
other 36% −$99
sports 16% +$591
world 5% −$14
culture 2% +$31
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% −$16
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -8.6% -17.3% 8% 1% -10.6%
all 143 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 10% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 9% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 8% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$993) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$10 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized+$457
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses40 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage146d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $576 $575 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $431 $430 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $906 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,854 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,768 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $264 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $357 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $486 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,034 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,919 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,725 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $218 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $226 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $844 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $893 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,451 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,773 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $879 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $431 53m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $576 4h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $940 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $941 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $883 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $884 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $955 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $956 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $914 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $916 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $705 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $991 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $993 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $777 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $779 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $808 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $668 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $776 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $777 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $369 17d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $369 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $528 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $529 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.81 · official $1,005.81 (match) · 415 history records