Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x495f…9bc7 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$368 (-46%) realized −$376 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$313
crypto 9% +$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.6% -29.0% 47% 32% -50.6%
≤30d 19 -21.6% -29.0% 47% 32% -50.6%
≤90d 19 -21.6% -29.0% 47% 32% -50.6%
all 19 -21.6% -29.0% 47% 32% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 32% -50.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 21% -55.4%
15% -42.0% 16% -59.7%
20% -47.7% 16% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$38 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 100¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+96%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 51¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $149 +$3 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $87 +$51 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $375 −$370 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 25m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $152 57m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $149 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $78 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $25 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.25 · official $100.45 (match) · 56 history records