trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 12 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 15% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 20% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $25,911 | $20,643 | −$5,268 (-20%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,050 | $735 | −$315 (-30%) |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in June? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $388 | $421 | +$33 (+9%) |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 3¢ | $233 | $122 | −$112 (-48%) |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $360 | $51 | −$309 (-86%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $5,395 | −$5,233 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 9? | May 09 | $1,707 | −$1,637 | -96% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? | May 09 | $2,461 | −$2,332 | -95% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? | May 08 | $1,454 | −$1,415 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 8? | May 08 | $35 | −$33 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6? | May 06 | $1,795 | −$1,694 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? | May 06 | $192 | −$181 | -94% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 April 27-May 3? | May 02 | $722 | −$692 | -96% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? | May 02 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in April? | Apr 29 | $130 | −$123 | -94% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 on April 25? | Apr 25 | $353 | −$330 | -93% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Oct 25 | $11,178 | −$11,178 | -100% |