Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x495d…68d8 sports 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,679 (+8%) realized +$10,313 · open +$366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%124W / 92L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1,432est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$560
7 days+$6,491
14 days+$10,551
30 days+$10,874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$10,096
other 14% +$1,079
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +21.5% +9.9% 65% 65% +13.2%
≤30d 90 +4.4% -5.6% 58% 58% +4.0%
≤90d 186 +2.5% -7.2% 58% 58% -2.3%
all 216 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 57% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 57% -2.4%
10% -15.5% 55% -11.7%
15% -23.7% 50% -20.3%
20% -31.1% 42% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$458 vs −$504 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$1,140
Realized+$10,313
Unrealized+$366
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses124 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,432
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage194d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 68¢ 100¢ $774 $1,140 +$366 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $509 +$780 +153%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,084 −$1,067 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $656 +$430 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $703 +$462 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,023 +$3,140 +307%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,725 +$1,150 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $812 −$800 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$556 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $758 +$383 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,518 +$1,119 +74%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,213 +$689 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,621 +$1,183 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,514 +$648 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,416 −$1,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $807 +$303 +38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,013 +$787 +78%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,012 +$681 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $810 +$546 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $610 +$734 +120%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $711 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,212 +$587 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,011 +$600 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $809 +$460 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,310 +$487 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,512 +$541 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,018 +$1,451 +142%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $974 +$142 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $490 −$482 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,683 −$74 -4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $696 +$747 +107%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $955 +$864 +90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $374 −$57 -15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $305 +$251 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $253 −$228 -90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $546 +$304 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $487 +$59 +12%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $507 −$500 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $306 +$497 +162%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2,416 +$2,215 +92%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $503 +$367 +73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,506 −$1,081 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $292 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $1,289 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 69¢ $490 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 39¢ $509 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,084 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $1,086 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 59¢ $656 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,165 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $703 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $4,162 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,874 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 24¢ $1,023 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 49¢ $812 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $505 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $2,220 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,064 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $508 5d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $1,014 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,141 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2,637 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,903 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $758 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $509 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $1,009 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $1,213 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $2,804 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $2,162 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $1,514 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $1,621 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $508 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,140.21 · official $1,140.21 (match) · 390 history records