Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x495c…b419 other 10 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2
sports 49% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.3% -40.6% 40% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 10 -34.3% -40.6% 40% 40% -7.5%
≤90d 10 -34.3% -40.6% 40% 40% -7.5%
all 10 -34.3% -40.6% 40% 40% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 40% -7.5%
10% -46.3% 40% -16.4%
15% -51.5% 30% -24.5%
20% -56.2% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $5 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 44h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records