Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4957…f225 crypto 1476 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$495 (-3%) realized −$493 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%349W / 1133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day91.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$41
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$23
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1047 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 6% -9.8%
≤30d 1482 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 1482 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 6% -9.7%
all 1482 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$493
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses349 / 1133
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1482 / 1476
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day91.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 76¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 50¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1882%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.00 · official $47.00 (match) · 3500 history records