Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4954…ac42
crypto · 1011 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$61 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$121 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$769
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses440 / 512
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions61
Markets (closed)952 / 1011
History coverage59d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 61 History 952 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$318
14 days−$444
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 66¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 43¢ 100¢ $12 $27 +$15 (+130%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Monte 70¢ 100¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+43%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 74¢ 100¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+35%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 60¢ 57¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+17%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 53¢ 62¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 100¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+52%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 49¢ 78¢ $11 $18 +$6 (+58%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 81¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 65¢ 93¢ $12 $16 +$5 (+42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 77¢ 84¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Natus Vincere 41¢ 52¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+26%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ 100¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 61¢ 91¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+49%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$2 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$6 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -59%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $18 +$51 +283%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 −$2 -22%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $28 +$26 +94%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $30 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 44% −$356
sports 32% −$340
other 10% +$16
world 10% +$691
finance 1% −$52
politics 1% +$130
tech 1% −$22
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $0 23m
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 33m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $0 45m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 50m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 56m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $0 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $5 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 40¢ $0 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $6 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 40¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 43¢ $0 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $6 3h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 73¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -69.6% -72.5% 15% 15% -58.2%
≤30d 663 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 47% -12.8%
≤90d 952 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 44% -13.7%
all 952 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 44% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 42% -22.0%
15% -31.3% 38% -29.5%
20% -38.0% 36% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $768.59 · official $768.62 (match) · 3500 history records