Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x4954…9fa6 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL +$22 (+5%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate85%72W / 13L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$16
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +1.4% -8.2% 84% 48% -6.2%
≤30d 85 +3.9% -6.0% 85% 49% -5.0%
≤90d 85 +3.9% -6.0% 85% 49% -5.0%
all 85 +3.9% -6.0% 85% 49% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 49% -5.0%
10% -15.0% 26% -14.1%
15% -23.2% 15% -22.4%
20% -30.7% 8% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses72 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records