Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4954…a216 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-5%) realized −$96 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$290
14 days−$290
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$70
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -59.0% -62.9% 33% 17% -33.3%
≤30d 7 -51.6% -56.2% 29% 14% -27.6%
≤90d 11 -25.8% -32.9% 45% 36% -16.1%
all 11 -25.8% -32.9% 45% 36% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 36% -16.1%
10% -39.3% 36% -24.1%
15% -45.2% 27% -31.5%
20% -50.6% 18% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$76 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage50d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $501 +$30 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 20 $512 −$34 -7%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $30 +$22 +73%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $102 +$30 +29%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $200 +$149 +74%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $531 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 5d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $478 27d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $512 28d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $52 42d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 42d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 45¢ $349 43d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 43d
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 50d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 50d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.13 · official $623.13 (match) · 39 history records