Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4953…bd5e sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$46 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$473
14 days−$900
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$226
other 37% −$668
crypto 5% +$166
world 3% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -46.9% -52.0% 20% 20% -44.7%
≤30d 87 -12.4% -20.7% 32% 32% -11.7%
≤90d 87 -12.4% -20.7% 32% 32% -11.7%
all 87 -12.4% -20.7% 32% 32% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 32% -11.7%
10% -28.3% 29% -20.2%
15% -35.3% 26% -27.9%
20% -41.6% 25% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$43 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 59
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage23d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $47 +$6 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $68 +$154 +226%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $84 −$16 -19%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$44 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $37 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $98 −$95 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $81 −$79 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $119 +$160 +134%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $60 −$58 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$138 +137%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $91 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $66 −$64 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $151 −$50 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $113 +$83 +73%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $38 +$6 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $126 −$14 -11%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $146 +$173 +118%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $81 +$80 +99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $63 −$62 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 +$132 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$52 +103%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 +$30 +58%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$120 +234%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $51 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $54 45m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 50m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 57m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $49 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 9h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $68 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $68 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $84 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $40 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea BUY 12¢ $34 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $98 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 31¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $70 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $81 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $59 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 24¢ $279 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 137 history records