Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x4951…3038 sports 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,672 (-15%) realized −$26,630 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%189W / 162L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1,373est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,643
7 days−$6,260
14 days−$6,521
30 days−$14,521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$25,786
other 17% −$3,234
world 1% +$850
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 48% -31.0%
≤30d 106 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -28.7%
≤90d 285 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -26.7%
all 351 -6.9% -15.8% 54% 53% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 53% -24.4%
10% -23.8% 53% -31.7%
15% -31.2% 46% -38.3%
20% -37.9% 26% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$648) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$531 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,838
Realized−$26,630
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses189 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,373
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 353
History coverage114d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $1,230 $1,195 −$35 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $650 $643 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $224 −$224 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $753 −$753 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $150 +$60 +40%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 17 $160 +$302 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,487 −$1,487 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,557 +$2,175 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $910 −$910 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $683 +$461 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,140 +$1,299 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $332 +$504 +152%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $648 −$648 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $420 −$420 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $517 +$483 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $908 +$1,216 +134%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) Jun 13 $495 +$236 +48%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $396 −$396 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $692 +$788 +114%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $37 +$29 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $155 −$155 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $478 −$478 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $741 +$317 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $114 +$43 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $79 +$132 +166%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,304 −$1,304 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $461 −$461 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,843 −$1,843 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $107 +$49 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $925 +$403 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $413 +$148 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $91 +$43 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,104 −$2,104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $794 +$1,109 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $224 +$98 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $983 +$813 +83%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,629 −$1,629 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,427 +$1,019 +71%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2,094 −$2,094 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $537 +$409 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1,624 +$1,576 +97%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $287 −$287 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $660 4m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,248 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $160 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $150 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $224 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $753 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $727 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,557 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,382 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $159 41h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 59¢ $683 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1,487 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $1,140 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $910 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $332 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $505 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $302 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $648 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $517 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 68¢ $280 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 38¢ $310 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $908 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $290 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $420 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $1,019 4d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $495 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $396 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $692 5d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 56¢ $37 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $155 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,837.75 · official $1,837.75 (match) · 762 history records