Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x494e…d3db other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,889 (-30%) realized −$4,624 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 86L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$1,426
14 days−$3,955
30 days−$3,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2,220
sports 39% −$1,804
economics 6% −$950
crypto 2% −$299
world 1% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -5.6% -14.6% 26% 26% -20.8%
≤30d 111 -10.2% -18.7% 25% 25% -34.5%
≤90d 111 -10.2% -18.7% 25% 25% -34.5%
all 114 -12.5% -20.8% 25% 25% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 25% -38.7%
10% -28.4% 25% -44.6%
15% -35.3% 25% -49.9%
20% -41.7% 24% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$140 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$4,624
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions11
Markets (closed)114 / 125
History coverage173d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$306 +596%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$333 +650%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$92 +180%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$210 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $153 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 15h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $51 24h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 4¢ $51 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $102 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $102 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.80 · official $484.80 (match) · 155 history records