Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x494e…ed1c world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$10
sports 24% $0
other 20% −$8
politics 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 0% -9.8%
all 66 -2.0% -11.4% 33% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage521d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $75 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $43 −$13 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $58 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $35 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $60 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $15 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $27 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $27 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $29 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records