Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x494b…e225 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$338 (+37%) realized +$339 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%53W / 93L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$152
14 days+$201
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$259
other 21% +$96
world 9% −$12
crypto 3% −$17
finance 2% +$3
economics 1% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +101.2% +82.1% 57% 57% +96.1%
≤30d 36 +64.1% +48.4% 56% 50% +63.7%
≤90d 146 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 33% +29.5%
all 146 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 33% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% +29.5%
10% -27.0% 32% +17.1%
15% -34.1% 29% +5.8%
20% -40.5% 27% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$339
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses53 / 93
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions22
Markets (closed)146 / 168
History coverage60d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 60¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+98%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 61¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 42¢ 15¢ $13 $4 −$8 (-64%)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Dallas Wings 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+254%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $2 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Yes 43¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +498%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +414%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25 +$45 +176%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$17 +596%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$14 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $31 −$17 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 +$33 +194%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +29%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $18 +$32 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $41 +$43 +106%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $9 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $12 +$8 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $4 +$5 +132%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $8 +$12 +152%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $16 +$14 +86%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 10 $8 +$8 +100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 61¢ $6 38m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 43¢ $4 38m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $5 41m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.04 · official $129.04 (match) · 392 history records