Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x494a…4142 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 30% $0
economics 14% $0
sports 10% −$5
politics 9% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 24 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 37 -4.8% -13.9% 41% 3% -9.4%
all 44 -4.0% -13.2% 48% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage490d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 +$5 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $27 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $48 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $27 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $30 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $28 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $32 −$4 -13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $282 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $287 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $256 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $256 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Mar 03 $3 +$3 +92%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $30 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $23 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $30 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $14 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $29 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $32 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $19 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $27 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $27 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.69 · official $31.00 (match) · 137 history records