Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4948…08bd sports 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,824 (-4%) realized −$9,724 · open +$900
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%156W / 207L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days+$3,380
14 days+$3,380
30 days+$3,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$7,360
sports 30% −$16,223
other 14% −$1,818
politics 6% +$997
economics 1% +$248
finance 1% +$482
tech 1% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 33% +33.7%
≤30d 9 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 33% +33.7%
≤90d 164 -90.9% -91.8% 4% 3% -54.9%
all 363 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 38% -14.1%
10% -21.7% 32% -22.3%
15% -29.3% 29% -29.8%
20% -36.2% 28% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +62% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$240 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$6,500
Realized−$9,724
Unrealized+$900
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses156 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)363 / 367
History coverage246d
Avg bet$542
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,939 +$939 (+19%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $223 −$220 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,014 +$845 +83%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 11 $3,782 +$4,364 +115%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $7,372 −$7,372 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $1,000 −$105 -10%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $7,902 +$2,001 +25%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Apr 01 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $194 −$194 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 01 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs DRX - Game 4 Winner Apr 01 $121 −$121 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $203 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 32h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $223 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,000 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $510 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 43¢ $203 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $507 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $507 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $506 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $507 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 39¢ $394 76d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 19¢ $100 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 42¢ $201 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 44¢ $200 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $895 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 48¢ $3,078 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $2,852 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,000 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 44¢ $1,500 77d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $2,723 77d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 25¢ $362 87d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 24¢ $363 87d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 25¢ $378 87d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Gen.G 84¢ $3,406 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,500.23 · official $6,500.23 (match) · 1353 history records