Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x4947…e077 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+1%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$24
politics 22% −$5
sports 8% +$93
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -18.2% -26.0% 21% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 11% -7.9%
10% -33.1% 11% -16.7%
15% -39.5% 11% -24.7%
20% -45.5% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$7 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage633d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $521 $521 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $488 $488 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,011 −$1 -0%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Nov 12 $9 +$13 +144%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 05 $5 $0 -7%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $131 +$99 +75%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $116 +$99 +85%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $20 −$20 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $521 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $488 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $479 25h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $516 25h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $480 34h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $517 34h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,010 34h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,011 2d
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Edwards 40¢ $9 222d
Capitals vs. Hurricanes BUY Capitals 41¢ $9 225d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 283d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 342d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 366d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 401d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 402d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 404d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $6 405d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 405d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 406d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 407d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 409d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 412d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.49 · official $1,008.49 (match) · 55 history records