Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4945…3f00 sports 745 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+4%) realized +$63 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%458W / 277L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$12
14 days+$6
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$48
other 24% −$5
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 61% -0.9%
≤30d 135 +4.2% -5.8% 61% 61% -4.6%
≤90d 568 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 60% -7.6%
all 735 +3.2% -6.6% 62% 62% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 62% -7.0%
10% -15.6% 58% -15.9%
15% -23.7% 49% -24.0%
20% -31.2% 39% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses458 / 277
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)735 / 745
History coverage122d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+108%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 +$3 +69%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +109%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +70%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +70%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3 +$2 +52%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $8 +$4 +49%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +86%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +76%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $2 10h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $3 10h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 10h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $2 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 27h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $2 29h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $2 30h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 51¢ $3 3d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 4d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $5 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $25.00 (match) · 1573 history records