Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x4942…3558 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$172 (+37%) realized +$173 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip
Net edge+92%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$15
other 23% +$164
crypto 6% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+91.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.1% +24.9% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤30d 9 +38.1% +24.9% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤90d 11 +39.3% +26.0% 64% 64% +16.8%
all 39 +111.8% +91.7% 38% 38% +31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.7% 38% +31.1%
10% +73.3% 38% +18.6%
15% +56.6% 38% +7.1%
20% +41.2% 38% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +198% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage128d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Egypt 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $57 +$35 +62%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $48 −$48 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 +$16 +109%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $12 +$28 +226%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $62 +$49 +78%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $49 +$93 +189%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5) May 03 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$4 +466%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$4 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$4 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$19 +1899%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$4 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 21 $0 +$5 +1898%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 21 $2 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14? Feb 16 $56 +$72 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 18¢ $9 15m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $93 18m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $57 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $20 8h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $15 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $111 21h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $26 21h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $12 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 22h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $16 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $28 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 59¢ $24 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $10 23h
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 49d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 50d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 50d
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5) BUY Inter Miami CF 30¢ $10 50d
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5) BUY Inter Miami CF 56¢ $10 50d
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5) BUY Inter Miami CF 60¢ $40 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.75 · official $7.75 (match) · 67 history records