Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4942…e3f0 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-19%) realized −$120 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$54
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$1
sports 19% −$14
world 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -14.9% -23.0% 41% 38% -39.4%
≤30d 41 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 34% -36.0%
≤90d 41 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 34% -36.0%
all 41 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 34% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 34% -36.0%
10% -32.3% 29% -42.2%
15% -38.8% 27% -47.8%
20% -44.8% 20% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage10d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $55 +$55 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 $0 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 24h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 33h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 44h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 44h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.29 · official $60.63 (match) · 109 history records