Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4941…b03c
weather · 706 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$144 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$156 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses425 / 237
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions60
Markets (closed)662 / 706
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 60 History 662 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$3
14 days+$49
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 47¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+111%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 88¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+862%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? No 42¢ 56¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 38¢ 90¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+137%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 17¢ 90¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+439%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 8? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 5? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 9? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? No 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+123%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 51¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? No 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +487%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +21%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +93%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$7 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$15 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -28%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$9 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +132%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Varbergs BoIS win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +461%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $23 −$1 -4%
Angola leading at halftime? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$91
weather 34% −$18
sports 18% +$92
world 4% −$3
crypto 2% −$19
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% +$5
politics 0% −$10
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 80¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 98¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 48¢ $1 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $8 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 22¢ $2 1h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $4 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $4 2h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 87¢ $9 2h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $3 3h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 14¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $5 11h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +12.0% +1.3% 55% 40% -9.8%
≤30d 662 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 41% -7.0%
≤90d 662 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 41% -7.0%
all 662 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 41% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 31% -15.9%
15% -13.1% 24% -24.1%
20% -21.6% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.22 · official $34.40 · 2015 history records