Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x493e…618f crypto 46 markets active 7d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (424 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$28,752 (+54%) realized +$28,752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,155per market
Trades / day424.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27,848
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (424 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +42.6% +29.0% 77% 77% +32.3%
≤30d 46 +30.6% +18.2% 72% 65% +38.1%
≤90d 46 +30.6% +18.2% 72% 65% +38.1%
all 46 +30.6% +18.2% 72% 65% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover424.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.2% 65% +38.1%
10% +6.9% 63% +24.9%
15% ← realistic here -3.4% 63% +12.8%
20% -12.9% 63% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,265) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,156 vs −$794 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28,752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,155
Trades / day424.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,294 +$906 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1,162 +$1,038 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1,183 +$1,017 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,229 +$971 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,216 +$984 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,193 +$1,007 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1,267 −$1,229 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,262 +$938 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,094 +$918 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,151 +$1,049 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,016 −$984 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,223 +$977 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,295 −$1,265 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $168 +$172 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1,162 −$1,125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,023 −$989 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $461 +$520 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $484 +$545 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $337 +$351 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $353 −$353 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,062 +$1,160 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5,352 +$4,073 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $698 +$497 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,104 +$1,356 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,491 +$880 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1,631 +$1,243 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3,421 +$7,819 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2,091 −$2,034 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $511 −$496 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2,229 +$1,448 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4,190 +$2,476 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $544 +$567 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1,428 −$1,427 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $143 −$135 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $306 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $359 +$63 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1,014 +$693 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2,968 +$2,765 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $407 +$467 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1,025 +$1,177 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $150 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 957 history records