Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

49 0x493c…1d73 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$26 (+9%) realized +$27 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit16%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$29

7 days+$35

14 days+$23

30 days+$23

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+7.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+25.7%	+13.7%	62%	50%	+6.1%
≤30d	17	+18.3%	+7.0%	59%	47%	+0.5%
≤90d	17	+18.3%	+7.0%	59%	47%	+0.5%
all	17	+18.3%	+7.0%	59%	47%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.0%	47%	+0.5%
10%	-3.2%	47%	-9.1%
15%	-12.6%	29%	-17.9%
20%	-21.1%	24%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +26% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage15d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$39	$39	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$42	−$2	-5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$40	+$4	+10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	$0	-3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$27	+$16	+60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$1	-16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$9	+$3	+31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$2	+$7	+360%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$8	+$4	+55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$16	$0	+2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$13	+$3	+23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$8	+$5	+56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$6	+$3	+45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+32%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$7	−$3	-38%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 07	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	57¢	$40	10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$42	15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	48¢	$42	16m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$44	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$44	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$40	2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$27	24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	42¢	$4	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$9	33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$8	33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	75¢	$17	33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$16	34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	89¢	$16	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$13	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$8	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	75¢	$5	6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$5	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	81¢	$11	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.06 · official $43.06 (match) · 40 history records