Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x4938…5e64 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days−$8
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 50% +28.3%
≤30d 5 -11.4% -19.9% 60% 40% +5.8%
≤90d 5 -11.4% -19.9% 60% 40% +5.8%
all 5 -11.4% -19.9% 60% 40% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% +5.8%
10% -27.5% 40% -4.3%
15% -34.5% 40% -13.6%
20% -40.9% 20% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$55 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage15d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $104 +$96 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records