Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4936…83ca sports 161 markets active 6d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$6
politics 20% −$3
other 19% −$3
economics 9% −$1
world 9% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 161 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage144d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 09 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $369 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $66 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 26 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 5d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $32 13d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 13d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 21d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 22d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $32 33d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $32 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $26 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $26 96d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $30 96d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $21 97d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $10 97d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $29 97d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $29 97d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 97d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 97d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $31 97d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $31 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $31 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $30 97d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $30 97d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $30 98d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 98d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $36 98d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $31 98d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $31 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $34 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $34 99d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 713 history records