Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x4934…1397 politics 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$1
crypto 29% −$1
economics 15% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage94d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 5d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 20d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 31d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 41d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 43d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 43d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 43d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 47d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $99 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $99 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $99 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $99 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $99 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $100 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records