Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4934…6d71 world 963 markets active 6h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,498 (+1%) realized +$2,177 · open +$321
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate76%668W / 214L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$53
14 days+$126
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$229
crypto 39% +$2,019
politics 10% −$98
other 7% −$3
sports 2% +$65
tech 1% +$117
culture 1% +$61
economics 1% +$67
weather 1% −$8
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +17.5% +6.3% 75% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 66 +4.6% -5.3% 73% 33% -9.0%
≤90d 275 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 39% -10.2%
all 882 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 22% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 22% -8.3%
10% -20.4% 12% -17.1%
15% -28.1% 6% -25.1%
20% -35.1% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$4,483
Realized+$2,177
Unrealized+$321
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses668 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions80
Markets (closed)882 / 963
History coverage337d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $293 $310 +$17 (+6%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $230 $291 +$61 (+26%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $215 $246 +$31 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $200 $227 +$27 (+13%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 96¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $179 $206 +$27 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $184 $201 +$17 (+9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $186 $193 +$6 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 72¢ 86¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $110 $119 +$9 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $122 $100 −$22 (-18%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+24%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 72¢ 92¢ $75 $96 +$21 (+27%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 74¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 41¢ 76¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+84%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $41 $53 +$12 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $1,002 +$15 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +123%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $118 −$28 -23%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $91 +$23 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $71 −$20 -29%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $481 +$9 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $522 −$5 -1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,090 +$27 +2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $100 +$9 +8%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $70 +$7 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 +$29 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 02 $20 +$7 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta Jun 01 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 +$6 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $140 −$12 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $114 +$11 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,641 −$88 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $50 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$8 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $384 +$66 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $918 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $13 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 65¢ $1 18h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $11 21h
Will Rafael Leão record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 90¢ $6 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $2 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 30h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 30h
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of AC Milan? SELL No 95¢ $10 39h
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $12 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 3d
Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,483.19 · official $4,484.21 (match) · 3237 history records