Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492f…8144 world 7 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-21%) realized −$173 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$74
finance 5% −$9
economics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -63.4%
≤30d 3 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -63.4%
≤90d 3 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -63.4%
all 3 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.6% 0% -63.4%
10% -86.1% 0% -66.9%
15% -87.4% 0% -70.1%
20% -88.7% 0% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$58 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $91 $181 +$90 (+99%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $230 −$113 -49%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.37 · official $240.39 (match) · 10 history records