Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x492e…c50b
weather · 945 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$389 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$388 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,604
Realized+$388
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses660 / 9
Open positions276
Markets (closed)669 / 945
History coverage9d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day313.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 276 History 669 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$222
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $169 $172 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $163 $166 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $154 $157 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $98 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $94 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 75¢ $120 $91 −$29 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $133 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $92 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $70 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $220 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $13 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $29 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $40 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 18m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $7 18m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 20m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 23m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $13 26m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $18 37m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $4 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 627 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 669 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 669 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.7%
all 669 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover313.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 1% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 1% -17.4%
15% -24.6% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.0% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,604.42 · official $8,600.31 (match) · 3500 history records