Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x492e…e77f other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+32%) realized +$259 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$175
14 days+$250
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$206
sports 41% +$46
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 46% +20.2%
≤30d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 48% +22.7%
≤90d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 48% +22.7%
all 29 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 48% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 48% +22.7%
10% -19.8% 48% +11.0%
15% -27.5% 48% +0.3%
20% -34.6% 34% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $71 +$94 +132%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$29 +188%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$14 -70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$16 +39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$87 +132%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +131%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +211%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$59 +84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $151 +$73 +48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 53¢ $16 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $20 6h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $10 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $31 6h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $20 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $20 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 30h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 19¢ $6 33h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 60¢ $20 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $20 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 78¢ $56 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $15 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $25 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $153 3d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $66 3d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.18 · official $103.20 (match) · 59 history records