Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x492d…eadc
crypto · 228 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$45 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses144 / 83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage102d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? No 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $117 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 16 $112 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 16 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 16 $111 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 16 $167 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 15 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 15 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 14 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 14 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 14 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 14 $24 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $1 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $92 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $87 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $90 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $63 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $48 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 38% +0.8%
≤30d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 38% +0.8%
≤90d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 38% +0.8%
all 227 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 17% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 17% -10.5%
10% -17.8% 3% -19.1%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.9%
20% -33.0% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 729 history records