Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x492d…9487 crypto 760 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,443 (+2%) realized +$1,911 · open +$532
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate76%569W / 182L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$130
14 days+$296
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$971
world 9% +$1,198
other 6% −$132
sports 0% +$40
politics 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 38% -8.9%
≤30d 168 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 751 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 31% -8.0%
all 751 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 31% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 11% -16.8%
15% -28.1% 5% -24.8%
20% -35.2% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$34 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$2,927
Realized+$1,911
Unrealized+$532
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses569 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)751 / 760
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $1,257 $2,098 +$841 (+67%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $353 $394 +$41 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 59¢ 18¢ $412 $129 −$283 (-69%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 55¢ $90 $54 −$36 (-39%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $29 $35 +$5 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 70¢ 16¢ $46 $10 −$36 (-77%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 61¢ 94¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 74¢ 31¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-58%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $242 +$37 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$69 -68%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $265 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,242 +$58 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $760 +$40 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $167 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $576 +$87 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $242 +$41 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $465 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $462 +$75 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $753 +$91 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,252 +$81 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $801 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,276 −$40 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $505 −$313 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $405 +$72 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $403 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $402 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1,202 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $270 −$217 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $475 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $576 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2,028 +$50 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $305 +$77 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $409 +$191 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $441 +$72 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $360 +$40 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $950 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $219 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $705 +$69 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1,815 +$74 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $405 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $900 +$100 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $935 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $628 +$26 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $242 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $292 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $44 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $190 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,927.41 · official $2,927.34 (match) · 3500 history records