Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x492c…d12b crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$321 (+1%) realized +$205 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%19W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$896per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9,144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$315
other 2% +$7
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 89% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 0% -8.5%
all 21 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×111.5 per $1 lost it wins $111.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$9,144
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses19 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)21 / 31
History coverage65d
Avg bet$896
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,982 $1,999 +$17 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,889 $1,944 +$55 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,474 $1,480 +$6 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $990 $998 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $988 $998 +$10 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $989 $997 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $489 $498 +$8 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $138 $141 +$3 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $873 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $938 +$25 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 03 $987 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $1,731 +$19 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $4,559 +$41 +1%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? May 31 $58 $0 -1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 18 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 08 $194 +$6 +3%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 08 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 08 $245 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 08 $494 +$6 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 08 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 08 $989 +$11 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 08 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 08 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 08 $2,977 +$22 +1%
Will Google reach $400 in April? Apr 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 30 $589 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,476 2h
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 98¢ $86 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 98¢ $262 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 98¢ $14 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 98¢ $18 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 98¢ $196 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $486 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $486 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $17 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $15 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $27 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $99 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $79 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $381 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $991 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,982 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $84 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $96 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $989 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $81 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $459 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $190 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $341 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $270 20d
Will BNB reach $800 in May? SELL No 96¢ $57 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $196 31d
Will BNB reach $800 in May? BUY No 96¢ $58 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,144.24 · official $9,144.24 (match) · 112 history records