Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492c…2754 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% $0
world 38% +$2
sports 8% +$2
politics 7% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 14 -7.1% -15.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 -7.1% -15.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 52 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage294d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $58 −$1 -2%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $19 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $7 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $26 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $35 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.54 · official $37.54 (match) · 298 history records