Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492b…45ee sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,258 (-4%) realized −$2,247 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,235per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$680est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$641
14 days−$3,829
30 days−$2,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,770
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 75% 25% -6.8%
≤30d 25 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 16% -14.2%
≤90d 25 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 16% -14.2%
all 25 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 16% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 16% -14.2%
10% -19.8% 4% -22.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.5% 4% -29.9%
20% -34.6% 4% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$894 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$4,994
Realized−$2,247
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$680
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2,235
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 96¢ 100¢ $4,638 $4,833 +$195 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ 98¢ $165 $161 −$3 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $165 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,773 +$11 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $6,994 +$472 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,812 −$452 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,298 +$182 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2,985 +$432 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $6,199 −$6 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $4,071 +$43 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $355 +$5 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $242 +$3 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $4,605 −$4,578 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $7,000 +$58 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1,114 +$13 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $780 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $4,031 +$83 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $622 +$659 +106%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $267 −$148 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $316 −$34 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $982 +$31 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $2,973 +$506 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $347 −$147 -42%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,090 +$58 +5%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 26 $2,830 +$47 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $179 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $2 1m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $8 1m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $138 2m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $17 2m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $85 3m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $85 4m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $165 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $4 9m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $8 9m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $33 9m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova $6 9m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 98¢ $120 9m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova $7 10m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova $0 12m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 100¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 100¢ $138 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 100¢ $8 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 100¢ $17 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic $11 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 98¢ $544 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 99¢ $1,100 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 99¢ $1,014 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 95¢ $446 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 95¢ $216 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 95¢ $1 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 92¢ $1,111 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 92¢ $468 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic $5 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic $55 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $49 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,994.03 · official $4,994.03 (match) · 862 history records