Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x492a…14ba crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-8%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$6
other 2% −$8
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +224.1% +193.3% 50% 50% +24.4%
≤30d 4 +89.2% +71.2% 50% 25% +20.6%
≤90d 4 +89.2% +71.2% 50% 25% +20.6%
all 46 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 39% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 39% -12.9%
10% -26.5% 33% -21.3%
15% -33.6% 26% -28.9%
20% -40.1% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage105d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$48 +454%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 22 $102 −$6 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 19 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$13 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 10 $5 +$10 +207%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 10 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$13 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $97 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $3 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 96d
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $21 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records