Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x492a…c338 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$150 (+22%) realized +$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$366
14 days+$366
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$380
other 17% −$14
crypto 6% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +44.1% +30.4% 70% 70% +48.6%
≤30d 11 +31.0% +18.6% 64% 64% +39.3%
≤90d 11 +31.0% +18.6% 64% 64% +39.3%
all 11 +31.0% +18.6% 64% 64% +39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.6% 64% +39.3%
10% +7.2% 55% +25.9%
15% -3.1% 55% +13.8%
20% -12.6% 55% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$32 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $177 +$93 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$31 +199%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$42 +103%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$201 +197%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $73 −$71 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $99 +$76 +76%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 −$38 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $270 36m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 49m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $126 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $82 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $15 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 25h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $99 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records