Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4929…cb29
crypto · 1839 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$406 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$406 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1605 / 407
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2012 / 1839
History coverage37d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 2012 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$379
7 days−$392
14 days−$392
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -696%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -1040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -2028%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -2746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -687%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -675%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2029%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -675%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1176%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -934%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1819%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -699%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -1968%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$24
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 622 -28.5% -35.3% 64% 28% -30.4%
≤30d 1624 -11.0% -19.5% 78% 49% -16.3%
≤90d 2012 -9.3% -18.0% 80% 51% -15.3%
all 2012 -9.3% -18.0% 80% 51% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 51% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 4% -23.4%
15% -33.0% 0% -30.8%
20% -39.6% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.73 · official $1.95 (match) · 3500 history records