Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
49 0x4924…8fc6 sports 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$265 (+1%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%88W / 137L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$567est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$512
7 days+$2,595
14 days+$1,459
30 days+$2,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$484
other 25% +$1,378
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +138.0% +115.3% 47% 47% +32.6%
≤30d 142 +30.0% +17.6% 39% 38% -0.1%
≤90d 225 +13.7% +2.8% 39% 38% -7.3%
all 225 +13.7% +2.8% 39% 38% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 38% -7.3%
10% -7.0% 38% -16.1%
15% -16.0% 37% -24.2%
20% -24.2% 36% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$100 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses88 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$567
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 234
History coverage77d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $224 −$39 -18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $381 +$115 +30%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $154 +$124 +81%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $373 −$141 -38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $194 −$17 -8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $301 −$111 -37%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $198 +$7 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $224 −$224 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $103 +$107 +104%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $147 +$313 +212%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $174 +$126 +72%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -15%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $126 −$51 -40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina v Jun 17 $51 +$1,085 +2109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $159 +$240 +151%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $145 +$39 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $459 +$574 +125%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $44 −$2 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $120 +$180 +150%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 +$346 +170%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $156 −$12 -8%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $140 +$157 +112%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$94 +89%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$93 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$32 -32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$116 +77%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $184 −$49 -27%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $166 −$4 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $69 −$68 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$258 +503%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $66 +$50 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $69 +$70 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $152 −$119 -78%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 +$10 +10%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 10 $95 −$45 -47%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $107 +$66 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $134 −$49 -36%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $59 −$59 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $110 −$72 -65%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $207 −$139 -67%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $152 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 −$15 -15%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 06 $143 −$37 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 34¢ $185 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $105 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $0 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $13 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $73 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $16 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 67¢ $391 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $278 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $0 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $66 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $80 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $144 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $89 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $232 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $373 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 683 history records