Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4923…daca crypto 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-10%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%133W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$7
14 days−$53
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$60
sports 3% −$20
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 45% -12.0%
≤30d 285 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 285 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -20.5%
all 285 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -20.5%
10% -20.9% 46% -28.1%
15% -28.6% 46% -35.1%
20% -35.6% 43% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses133 / 152
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 285
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.47 · official $30.47 (match) · 409 history records