Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4923…7ecf crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+5%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -15.2% -23.3% 61% 41% -7.6%
≤30d 41 -15.2% -23.3% 61% 41% -7.6%
≤90d 41 -15.2% -23.3% 61% 41% -7.6%
all 41 -15.2% -23.3% 61% 41% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 41% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 34% -16.5%
15% -37.3% 22% -24.6%
20% -43.5% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $122 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $153 +$54 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $112 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records