Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4922…f692
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$33 +136%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$39 +1201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+73.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +91.8% +73.6% 30% 30% +117.1%
≤30d 10 +91.8% +73.6% 30% 30% +117.1%
≤90d 10 +91.8% +73.6% 30% 30% +117.1%
all 10 +91.8% +73.6% 30% 30% +117.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.6% 30% +117.1%
10% +57.0% 30% +96.3%
15% +41.8% 30% +77.4%
20% +27.9% 30% +60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records